Is the job market bad right now? As of October 2026, it depends on which side of it you are on. If you have a job, the numbers are fairly calm: unemployment was 4.2% in September, lower than a year earlier, and layoffs are low. If you are looking for one, it is slow. The typical search is longer than a year ago, the share of people stuck for six months or more has grown, and people who answer the New York Fed's survey rate their odds of an offer at the lowest level since early 2021. At the same time, job postings have just turned positive year over year for the first time in almost four years. This page sets out the numbers behind each of those statements, including the ones that cut the other way. We update it as new data comes out.
The answer in five numbers
Each row compares the latest reading with the same month a year earlier, using the agency's own tables.
| Measure | Latest | A year earlier | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment rate (September) | 4.2% | 4.4% | Better |
| Median weeks unemployed (September) | 11.5 | 10.1 | Worse |
| Share unemployed 27 weeks or more (September) | 27.1% | 23.6% | Worse |
| Hires rate (August) | 3.3% | 3.2% | Flat |
| Expected chance of an offer in the next four months (July) | 18.0% | n/a | Lowest since March 2021 |
The first three come from the BLS Employment Situation for September 2026, released 2 October. The hires rate is from the BLS JOLTS release for August, released 29 September. The offer expectation comes from the New York Fed's SCE Labor Market Survey, which runs every four months.
Put together: fewer people are unemployed than a year ago, but the ones who are stay unemployed longer, and hiring has not sped up enough to change that. That is a market that is not collapsing and not moving much either.
Unemployment and search length
The September jobs report was quiet. Payroll employment rose by 29,000, and the BLS revised July down from +21,000 to -10,000 and August down from +162,000 to +133,000, so the two months combined were 60,000 lower than first reported. Averaging the three latest months gives roughly 51,000 jobs a month (our arithmetic on the BLS figures).
The household side tells a slightly different story:
- Unemployment rate: 4.2%, up from 4.1% in August but below 4.4% in September 2025. That is 7.1 million people.
- Broader underemployment (U-6): 7.6%, which adds people working part time because they cannot find full-time work (4.5 million) and people only loosely attached to the labor force.
- Median duration: 11.5 weeks, up from 10.1 a year earlier. The mean was 24.8 weeks, pulled up by long searches.
- Long-term unemployed: 1.9 million people, 27.1% of everyone unemployed, up from 23.6% a year earlier.
- College graduates: unemployment for people with a bachelor's degree or higher was 2.5%, down from 2.8% a year earlier.
The headline rate and the duration figures move in opposite directions. Fewer people are out of work, but the pool that is out of work is turning over more slowly. If you are searching now, the duration numbers describe your experience better than the unemployment rate does.
Openings, hires and quits
The BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for August 2026 counts openings only where a specific position exists, could start within 30 days, and is being actively recruited for. On that basis:
| Measure (August) | 2026 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Job openings | 7.1 million (4.3%) | 6.9 million (4.2%) |
| Hires | 5.2 million (3.3%) | 5.1 million (3.2%) |
| Quits | 3.1 million (1.9%) | 3.1 million (2.0%) |
| Layoffs and discharges | 1.6 million (1.0%) | 1.8 million (1.2%) |
Year-ago figures are from the August 2025 columns of the current BLS tables, which include revisions since first publication.
Openings are slightly higher than a year ago. Hires barely moved. Quits are low, which matters for job seekers because a quit usually opens a seat someone else has to fill. Layoffs fell to 1.0%. Put simply, this is a low-hire, low-fire market: people keep the jobs they have, and the seats that open up are scarce.
There were about 7.0 million unemployed people in August and 7.1 million openings, which works out to roughly one unemployed person per opening (our arithmetic). The BLS reported the same 1.0 ratio for June 2026, and says it has been 1.0 or 1.1 since February 2025. Our explainer on why it is so hard to find a job goes further into why a balanced ratio can still feel like a bad market.
What job seekers expect
The New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations asks households about their own prospects, which makes it the closest thing to a read on mood.
From the July 2026 Labor Market Survey:
- The average expected chance of receiving at least one job offer in the next four months fell 1.1 percentage points to 18.0%, "its lowest reading since March 2021." The drop was largest for people without a college degree, people under 45, and women.
- The share of people who had searched for a job in the past four weeks rose to 24.9%, from 22.5% in March 2026.
- The average reservation wage, the lowest pay people say they would accept, rose to a series high of $88,387.
The monthly survey published on 7 October 2026 points the other way on job security:
- The perceived chance of losing one's job in the next 12 months fell to 13.5%, the lowest since December 2024.
- The perceived chance of finding a job if one's current job were lost rose to 46.1%, above its 12-month average of 45.5%.
- The average probability people give that US unemployment will be higher a year from now fell to 43.9%, still above its 12-month average of 42.4%.
The two surveys do not contradict each other. People with jobs feel a little safer. People hunting for one expect a hard time, and more of them are hunting.
Postings are recovering
Here is the main data point for the optimistic case. Indeed Hiring Lab's September 2026 snapshot put its Job Postings Index at 103.5, about 3% above its February 2020 baseline and its highest level since late March. That was up 0.7% from a year earlier, "the first positive reading in almost four years."
The detail matters:
- New postings, as opposed to all postings, were at 94.0, about 6% below the pre-pandemic level.
- 60% of occupational sectors were above their pre-pandemic baseline, up from 51% at the start of June.
- Demand was strong for engineers and for personal care and home health. Tech was the weakest spot, with postings that "remain depressed despite improving from last year's lows."
- Posted wages rose 2.5% over the year to August 2026.
Applicant tracking data from iCIMS points the same way on openings and adds a twist on applications. Its May 2026 report, drawn from its platform, found April openings at a 12-month peak, 15% above a March 2025 baseline, while application volume dropped 10% and hiring was flat. That cuts against the common claim that applications are rising everywhere. LinkedIn, by contrast, says US applicants per open role on its platform have doubled since the spring of 2022. Both can be true, because they measure different platforms over different periods. When you see a claim about application volume, check which one it is.
New grads
Early-career job seekers have it harder than the overall numbers suggest.
| Measure | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Recent graduates (22 to 27) unemployment, 2026 Q2 | about 5.6% | New York Fed |
| Recent graduates underemployed, 2026 Q2 | 42% | New York Fed |
| Unemployment, all 20 to 24 year olds, September 2026 | 8.0% (9.2% a year earlier) | BLS |
| Employers' projected change in Class of 2026 hiring | +5.6% | NACE, April 2026 |
| Entry-level openings, April 2026 | +18%, with applications -9% and hires +3% | iCIMS |
Underemployment here means graduates working in jobs that do not usually need a degree. Recent graduates' 5.6% unemployment sits above the 4.2% rate for all workers. The 20 to 24 rate is volatile month to month: it was 7.1% in August before jumping to 8.0% in September. NACE's projection comes from 185 employers surveyed in February and March, and iCIMS reports only its own platform, so treat both as signals rather than counts. The direction they share is that entry-level openings exist, but the step from opening to hire is slow.
What to do with this
The numbers point to a few practical conclusions.
- Plan for a longer search than you would like. The median spell is 11.5 weeks and more than a quarter of unemployed people pass six months. Budget your money and your energy for that, and treat a quick offer as luck rather than the plan.
- Go where postings are growing. Indeed's data show demand in engineering and in personal care and home health, with tech still weak. If your skills transfer to a stronger sector, that is a real lever.
- Expect fewer seats, not fewer postings. Openings are steady, but low quits and slow hiring mean each seat is contested. That argues for sending enough applications to roles you fit, tailored to each posting. Our post on how many applications it takes to get a job turns that into a weekly number.
- Use people, not only portals. A New York Fed study of one large US company found referred applicants were more than twice as likely to be interviewed as job board applicants. The job search strategy guide puts volume, fit and referrals into one plan.
If the volume part is where you are stuck, ApplyEze finds matching roles on employers' own career boards, writes a resume for each posting, plus a cover letter when the form asks, and fills the application in a visible browser on your own machine. New accounts get 50 free credits, once per email address, with no card, and a credit is used only when an application is confirmed as submitted. Listed plans are Starter at $19 a month for 700 and Pro at $99 a month for 3,000. Check what it sends before you rely on it.
How this page is updated
We refresh these figures when the main sources publish. The next BLS jobs report, for October, is scheduled for 6 November 2026, and the next JOLTS release, for September, for 3 November 2026. The New York Fed's labor market survey updates every four months, and its college labor market data quarterly. When we update, the date at the top changes and the year-ago comparisons move forward with it.